Monday, 12 September 2011

The manifold uses of game theory

I came across this article recently published by The Economist: http://www.economist.com/node/21527025 which is on game theory. It explains how game theory may be used (and how it is used) to predict human beings' behaviour in a variety of fields. Politics and negotiation are just a couple of good examples. The journalist even reports that game theory would have played a role in finding Bin Laden's hiding place last May.

Well, so far so good. The fact is, I knew about game theory because when I was working on my PhD on dispute mediation I learnt that this branch of mathematics is used in negotiation. I did not really use it for my own research; my feeling was that the emphasis on a mathematical model was hardly conciliable with my own focus on argumentation - and how argumentation can indeed change the power balance, change the individuals' priorities by helping them find out their real interests. So I sort of abandoned game theory halfway through my PhD journey.

However, who knows... In The Economist's paper, I found it particularly interesting that a game-theory based consultation may cost you a lot of money because you "must first conduct lengthy interviews with experts" to construct a reliable model. Perhaps investigating this aspect - what these "lengthy interviews" amount to and how they are used - would allow integrating game theory in an argumentation-focused study of argumentation and mediation.

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Kathleen said...

Good Morning,

I have just read a review of your book in the Mediate BC so migrated to your Blog. So interesting, I too have been looking at game theory in relation to mediation as I work primarily in environmental multi-party disputes and was interested to see how ideas around 'the commons' might play out. But the math aspect was too much so I look forward to reading your book!!

Umibozu said...

Hi Sara,

I'm (amateurishly) interested in both argumentation and game theory, and have been looking for the analytical overlap for years! I think there's two places where the models and analytical aproaches come together.

The first is using Bayes' theorem for 'belief updating'. The formal logic of belief updating seems to be a thing these days, and decision theorists have got this down for decades. See chapter 4 of this book: http://www.springer.com/education+%26+language/science+education/book/978-94-007-2469-3

The second is using statistical mathematics to model speech and language. Ever since Shannon's 'mathematical theory of communication', Markov-chains have been used to model language and also dialogues. As so happens, MArkov chains also play an important role in game theory.

Keep up the good work!

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